The market reaction was immediate: global benchmark Brent crude fell sharply and dropped below $100 per barrel, after having risen earlier due to fears of a prolonged disruption to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The move was interpreted by traders and investors as a first sign of de-escalation in a conflict that had been adding a significant risk premium to the energy market. Immediately, the pause announced by Trump deflated the peak tension and sent oil prices plummeting. Any threat of closure, mining, partial blockade, or severe military control immediately alters supply expectations, impacts marine insurance, and reignites inflation and growth projections in major consumer economies. In this context, the market's reaction coexisted with a longer-term warning. However, looking ahead, major financial players still see an extremely sensitive market where any diplomatic failure can reinstate a much more expensive barrel within hours. The retreat came after several days in which oil had been trapped in a purely geopolitical logic: every threat to Hormuz, every warning from Tehran, and every military signal from Washington pushed prices up due to the risk of a global supply squeeze. The news spread by Trump via Truth Social changed that dynamic. Buenos Aires - March 23, 2026 - Total News Agency - TNA - The international price of oil registered a sharp drop this Monday after the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that he will suspend for five days the planned attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure amidst contacts he described as 'good and productive.' The agency noted that even if an immediate escalation is avoided, the risk of prolonged disruptions in crude shipments through Hormuz persists, as well as a strategic reserve realignment that would make the market more tense and risk-averse. This contrast sums up the current moment. The market celebrated the relief but did not consider the threat over. The background remains delicate, but the mere expectation of a negotiated pause was enough to ease the immediate pressure on the barrel. The importance of Hormuz explains why every piece of news so violently alters the quotations. Monday's fall did not cancel the crisis: it only reflected that, for the first time in several days, military logic ceded some ground to a still fragile political window. Therefore, the next moves of Washington, Tehran, and Israel will be decisive not only for regional security but also for the behavior of oil and the entire global economy. This message was enough for the market to unwind some of the most defensive hedges and begin to correct the weekend's overreaction. In a conflict where every presidential message can move the barrel by tens of dollars, volatility remains the norm. Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Barron’s. Approximately one-fifth of world oil trade and a decisive portion of liquefied natural gas circulates through this maritime corridor. The leader communicated that he ordered the temporary postponement of any offensive against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, subject to the evolution of ongoing talks. In practice, the market began to discount that, at least in the short term, the probability of a direct strike against Iranian energy assets and a more aggressive regional response on key supply routes has decreased. During the session, Brent hit a floor near $96 per barrel, with an intraday drop of over 13%, in a correction that erased in one go a large part of the jump accumulated during the crisis. Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for 2026 and now estimates an average price of $85 for Brent, up from the $77 it previously projected. The mere possibility of a tactical truce and a smoother reopening of the maritime passage abruptly changed the scenario.
