This Tuesday, the dollar reached its lowest level in three years due to reduced investor confidence in its future commercial and fiscal outlook, prompting them to diversify into other assets. Analysts explain that Donald Trump's foreign policy, as well as fiscal uncertainty in the US, are key to understanding the shift in investor portfolios. This has pushed the DXY index to 96.13 points, its lowest level since February 2022. Moreover, the index has fallen for four consecutive days this week, accumulating a 1.92% loss. Between January 14 and 20, net speculative futures positions in the peso increased by 3.5%, reaching 107,153 contracts in favor of the Mexican peso in the short term. Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics, cited by Bloomberg, ventured to say that positive surprises in trade negotiations could 'very easily' lead the peso to 16 units per dollar, and perhaps even to a level of 15 pesos in the next 12 to 18 months. In Mexico, where business confidence in the future of USMCA is waning, the analysis is more cautious. 'Despite the net positions being close to their nine-month high, the peso's stability in the short term will depend on global risk aversion and progress in the USMCA review,' stated Quiroz. 'Tariff warnings are losing effectiveness in the markets,' warned Gabriela Siller, director of analysis at Banco Base, who noted that since the presidential elections, Trump has made 49 tariff threats, not including the most recent one against South Korea. Banamex affirms that the 'super peso' is back due to Trump risk and fewer cuts from Banxico. 'Of that total, 26.5% have not translated into any action, while only 20.4% have been fully implemented, eroding the credibility of the US trade strategy, which has pressured the dollar downward,' said the analyst. On Monday afternoon, Trump launched a new trade threat against South Korea, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all its imports, up from the current 15%. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it formalizes a trade deal with China. In turn, Janneth Quiroz, an analyst at Monex, highlighted that uncertainty about US fiscal sustainability and the proximity of the January 30 deadline to avoid a government shutdown also eroded confidence in the currency. Perception of risk regarding the peso has decreased. In contrast, the perception of risk regarding the peso has diminished. In this context, the exchange rate against the peso stood at 17.22 units per dollar at the end of the trading session.
