Surveys show a similar pattern in this electoral cycle, with Kamala Harris holding her ground in battlegrounds while Donald Trump gains a double-digit lead in Florida. Despite this, a victory for Harris in the Electoral College is not completely ruled out if Trump wins the popular vote by a narrow margin. More voters say they trust Trump on the issues that concern them. Harris could easily win the national vote, but data suggest a potential victory for Trump in the popular vote.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency by a narrow margin as Trump performed well in contested Midwestern states. Four years later, Biden won the Electoral College, but his disadvantage in key states was even greater than Clinton's in 2016. Surveys show that Harris remains tied in states of uncertain trends, even though she has a slight national lead.
The most recent data indicates that Trump's advantage in the Electoral College is fading, partly due to Harris's resilience among white voters in key states. Despite the challenges, surveys show possibilities for a Harris victory in the Midwest, although her national lead is diminishing. Trump remains strong in non-competitive states, but not as much in those where Republicans faced difficulties.
The outlook raises the possibility of a Trump victory in the national popular vote, something uncommon in recent history. Both candidates are tied in the latest national poll, showing a tight race. Trump has a slight advantage when including minor party candidates. It is also noted that the economy is an important issue for voters, and in this regard, Trump has the upper hand.
Despite the challenges she faces, Harris continues to hold her ground in certain key states, although her national position weakens. Surveys show that Trump may appear to be a secure winner in a tie scenario in the national vote. However, Harris cannot be completely ruled out, especially considering recent precedents. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that she could achieve a victory.
