U.S. President Donald Trump's popularity has been steadily declining among the American public since his return to the White House last January. While part of this decline is typical for U.S. presidents in their second term, Trump's initial drop also reflects continued public dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living, issues that have led Democrats to victory in an increasing number of elections over the past year. According to data from election analysis website The Downballot, Democratic Party candidates averaged 13% more votes in the special elections held in 2025 than in the same districts during the 2024 presidential elections. The war with Iran has only exacerbated these economic concerns. Polling firm Ipsos found that 43% of the U.S. public approved of Trump's economic management at the start of his second term. By June 23, 2025, that figure had fallen to 35%, a level it maintained for the rest of the year. After a month of war with Iran, gasoline prices have skyrocketed to an average close to $4 per gallon. Meanwhile, Trump's economic approval rating has fallen to 29%. This percentage is lower than that of Joe Biden during his four years in the White House, when Americans faced an inflationary surge after the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic uncertainty contributed to the Democrats' defeat in 2024 and to Republican control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress over the past year. Now, it seems to be negatively affecting Trump's overall approval rating. At the start of his second term, according to an average of polls by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump enjoyed a 52% approval rating. While it was not the political honeymoon many previous presidents have enjoyed, the support of a majority of Americans after a contentious election allowed Trump to secure a mandate and push his ambitious political agenda on immigration, tariffs, government cuts, and tax reform. However, by February 28, at the start of the war with Iran, only 42% of Americans had a positive view of the president. This week, that figure has fallen to 40%. This is dangerous ground for a sitting president with just seven months until the midterm elections. The longer the war with Iran drags on and the more it disrupts the global economy and raises consumer prices, the greater the risk. At this week's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas—a gathering of politicians, activists, and highly engaged right-wing voters—a recurring theme was what is at stake in the November elections. "We cannot allow the left to win this election cycle and snatch away the agenda we fight for every day," declared Michael Whatley, a U.S. Senate candidate from North Carolina and former chairman of the Republican National Committee. He warned that with Democrats back in power, "it will be about impeachment, about deceptions, about investigations, and an agenda derailed." The president's approval rating has not suffered a sharp drop since the start of the war, despite the majority of the population opposing U.S. military intervention from the beginning. This is because Trump's political base has continued to support him despite economic concerns, as shown in the figures below, compiled by the Pew Research Center. That support from party activists, which ignores Trump's campaign promises to withdraw the U.S. from international conflicts, was evident at the Texas CPAC. "It's better to pay more now than to pay a lot more later," said Paul Heere, referring to the rise in U.S. gasoline prices. "I don't think we want another country in the region to have nuclear weapons, so you have to take that price." A recent Quinnipiac poll revealed that 86% of Republicans support U.S. military intervention in Iran and 80% approve of Trump's management. Among all registered voters, these figures drop to 39% and 34%, respectively. Democrats have largely opposed everything Trump has done since his return to the White House, and Iran has rejected dialogue. But now independent voters also seem to be turning against the president. Winning over independent voters was one of the keys to Trump's victory in 2024. Unless the current political dynamic changes, the independents' animosity could contribute to his party's possible defeat in November.
