In the United States, the voting process began more than a month ago in most states, allowing citizens to vote in person, mail their ballots, or deposit ballots in special drop boxes. In the next update, initial election results are expected, which could change American democracy.
After several weeks and appeals to multiple instances, in an unlikely scenario where a result stands, it would be Congress that defines who the next president is. In addition to the hidden vote against Kamala Harris for being a woman and possible underestimations in Democratic polls, other factors such as independent candidates and Jill Stein from the Green Party play a prominent role.
In seven states, polls indicate a technical tie, although in recent days, a potential growth of Trump has been observed in some of them. While the first Tuesday in November is considered 'election day,' it should actually be regarded as the 'last day to vote.'
With early voting, the profile of voters by party and gender is anticipated, which will be crucial to foresee the days following November 5. All information indicates that, if losing in key states, Kamala Harris could acknowledge Trump’s reelection under particular circumstances.
Donald Trump is likely to declare victory on November 5 if he takes the lead in the electoral college count in states like Texas, Ohio, and Florida, regardless of the results that are confirmed later. The night of November 5 looks long, with no clarity on who will be the next president of the United States. Analysts indicate a technical tie in the 'swing' states.
Five days before the elections, national polls indicate a technical tie in the last seven competitive states. Previous polls and mail-in voting in key states are receiving special attention. Given the special scrutiny, the certainty of the results expressed in the polls is being questioned. The analysis of early voting could be decisive and challenge existing polls.
Starting November 5, legal battles and lobbying will intensify to define the electoral outcome. So far, national poll aggregators show a minimal difference. Just days before the voting date, more than 60 million people had already voted, leaving a scenario of uncertainty about the outcome.
