The "October Surprise" is a term in U.S. politics that refers to an unexpected and significant event that can change public opinion just before presidential elections, which take place in the first week of November every four years. In the past, there have been examples of situations that have impacted presidential elections.
An iconic example of the "October Surprise" was during the 1972 elections when National Security Advisor Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, made statements that allowed the president to consolidate his leadership and emerge victorious over his opponent George MacGovern. In 2016, the scandal of Hillary Clinton's emails, announced by then-FBI Director James Comey, also had a crucial impact on the campaign.
Recently, just nine days before the 2024 elections, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe generated controversy by referring to Puerto Rico derogatorily during a campaign event for Donald Trump. Although Trump's campaign distanced itself from his comments, these could affect his relationship with the Latino electorate, especially in states with a significant presence of Latino voters such as Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania, as well as in swing states like Arizona and Nevada.
The Latino population in the United States plays a fundamental role in elections, with approximately 36 million registered voters, representing about 13% of the total electorate. Latino votes can be decisive, considering that this community constitutes about 19% of the total population of the country, around 63 million people.
The influence of "October Surprises" is not limited to presidential candidates but also extends to other areas, such as in Mexico, especially in cities with strong economic and cultural ties to the United States like Monterrey, Nuevo León. The relationship between both countries is crucial, and electoral outcomes can have an impact on cross-border labor and commercial perspectives.
The role of the author, an expert in data analysis and political consulting, highlights the importance of these events in elections and how they influence various sectors. The 2024 elections are marking a historic milestone due to their complexity and relevance, making them a topic of interest for various actors, from politicians to entrepreneurs and investors both in the United States and neighboring countries like Mexico.
