The United States is holding midterm elections, which will serve as the first electoral test for Donald Trump's second presidential administration. Although the presidency and vice presidency are not at stake, these elections are significant as their outcome could influence national policy, particularly negotiations over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
In Virginia and New Jersey, governors will be elected, while local elections in California, Texas, and Pennsylvania could also have national repercussions. Mexican authorities are closely monitoring the elections, believing that a strong showing by the Democratic Party could weaken Trump's position.
According to sources at the National Palace in Mexico, if Republicans suffer losses, Trump might shift his focus to domestic affairs rather than foreign policy, including relations with Mexico and the USMCA. This could lead to less tense trade negotiations. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, for instance, hopes that a setback for Trump would prompt him to abandon his most interventionist measures.
Key elections are taking place in New York, where a Democratic socialist candidate, Zohran Mamdani, could win in the country's most populous city. This result is a primary focus for Mexican officials. Additionally, in Texas, elections will be held to fill a vacancy in the local legislature following the death of Democrat Sylvester Turner, and several amendments proposed by hardline Republican Governor Greg Abbott will be on the ballot.
Trump's administration is also currently facing a record government shutdown due to a lack of a budget agreement. The election results could impact upcoming USMCA hearings, especially if the Supreme Court rules that tariff policy is set by Congress, not the White House—a scenario that would be more favorable for Claudia Sheinbaum.
