A potential war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could begin to affect consumers' wallets worldwide due to consequences for food prices caused by the rising cost of fertilizers. The near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects not only the price of oil and natural gas; it also hits fertilizers, one of the most critical inputs for agriculture—after seeds and water. When planting becomes more expensive, the risk shifts to consumers' tables, with less margin for producers, lower crop yields, and more pressure on food prices. The Associated Press documented that the shortage of these inputs is already affecting farmers in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the United States right in the middle of the planting season. But how much have fertilizer prices changed? While the increase in the cost of these inputs is not reflected instantly, it is enough to review the trend of recent days to know where it is heading and understand the scope of this indicator. According to the World Bank, in its 'Pink Sheet' published on March 3, its fertilizer index rose 6.5% in February. Among key products, urea—the most used nitrogen fertilizer—jumped from $392.5 per ton in December 2025 to $415.4 in January and $472.0 in February 2026, a leap of 20.3% in two months, even though this period does not yet include the effect of the military conflict with Iran, which officially began on February 28 with the attack that overthrew Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, potash rose from $358.3 to $372.5 per ton between December and February, nearly 4%, while DAP moved barely from $627.5 to $626.5, remaining practically flat. Based on these references, the current situation becomes more relevant, as some market reports indicate that the price of fertilizers like urea, due to the war in the Middle East, already exceeds $700 per ton in mid-March, meaning it has become about 40% more expensive. Therefore, specialists warn that nitrogen fertilizers are the most vulnerable because they depend on gas and a huge part of their trade passes through Hormuz. A warning signal Despite the focus on the effects on crude oil and natural gas prices, these adjustments in fertilizer prices are already noticeable in other markets. In the United States, the DTN retail survey reported in the third week of March that urea rose 11% from the previous month to $677 per ton, while UAN28 advanced 15% and anhydrous ammonia 8%. While this is not a global data point, it shows how geopolitical tension affects the prices paid by farmers outside the Middle East. This matters because if the fertilizer arrives late or at a higher cost, many farmers are forced to use less, switch crops, or plant with tighter margins; this can translate into lower yields and, subsequently, higher prices for consumers. The World Food Programme itself warned on March 8 that the disruption in energy, transportation, and fertilizers due to the conflict in the Middle East has a domino effect with the following scheme: less availability of inputs, lower harvests, and higher global food prices.
