The consequences of President Trump's 'America First' decisions will result in economic and trade isolation, trigger an arms race in Europe and Asia, and bring about an international policy of open confrontation; something not very different from the pre-World War I era.
In the following lines, I will try to explain, as best as possible, the possible effects of Trump's strategy, and although some colleagues have told me that it is a bit exaggerated to think we would be returning to conditions similar to the early 20th century, I believe history has taught us that countries tend to take extreme nationalist actions when they feel greatly threatened.
First: tariffs for all. Apparently, Trump's purpose is to secure strategic points on maritime trade routes by mentioning his desire to control Greenland and the Panama Canal. The objective is clearly to block the increase of trade coming from China through the Panama Canal; however, the mere intention to control countries or strategic geographic areas would be backing Russia's intent to conquer Ukraine.
Additionally, we currently have a high percentage of integration in the value chain of manufactured products, which implies that tariffs imposed on Mexico would not only impact Mexico but many other countries that sell us inputs and raw materials for the production of those products; the same would apply to Europe, Canada, and other countries affected by Trump's tariffs.
Finally, a trade war like the one beginning to unfold with President Trump's actions would lead countries to reduce their willingness to converse, negotiate, and reach agreements through international institutions that have promoted the balance of power worldwide for over 70 years.
Second: reduction or near elimination of international aid programs. President Trump's decisions aim, according to him, to make America Great Again; however, the positive impact will be short-lived and will bring negative side effects for both the American population and the rest of the world that will erase any positive impact achieved in the short term.
In the short term, tariffs could reduce the U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world, mainly with China, the European Union, and Mexico.
Trump's constant threats to withdraw support from NATO and the drama we witnessed a few weeks ago in the Oval Office between Trump, Vance, and Zelenskyy make it clear that Trump is not willing to provide strategic support unless there is certainty that the United States will gain something immediately.
The international institutions created at the end of World War II aimed at opening negotiation spaces and promoting cooperation may now be worn out.
But let us not forget that they were created with the vision of fostering negotiation, multilateral diplomatic relations, maintaining a global balance of power, and, as much as possible, creating mechanisms for cooperation and economic interdependence, as this would increase the cost of entering into another armed conflict like the two world wars.
