Volatility and concern among investors continue to create uncertainty in global financial markets. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral, reflecting investors' caution regarding market fluctuations in the coming months. The next few days will be marked by the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB, the evolution of trade tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that will continue to influence the direction of markets worldwide.
According to ATFX LATAM Financial Markets Analyst Felipe Mendoza, inflation in the United States is one of the main factors of uncertainty, surpassing market forecasts and generating changes in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The U.S. Consumer Price Index recorded a 0.47% increase in January 2025, raising the year-on-year rate to 3%. This increase, along with the acceleration of inflation on a six and three-month annualized basis, exceeds analysts' estimates and raises concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures.
The U.S. core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also exceeded expectations with a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual rate of 3.3%. Felipe Mendoza emphasized that these data suggest that inflation is not transitory and may require more vigorous measures from the Fed to control it.
As for projections regarding interest rate cuts in the United States through the Fed, previously expected for September, this is now anticipated to occur in December. This directly impacts the outlook for equities and Treasury bonds, with monetary policy being a central theme. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, indicated that the neutral interest rate has increased significantly since the pandemic, suggesting that rates will remain elevated for an extended period.
Finally, analyst Felipe Mendoza highlighted that the geopolitical landscape, with conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between Israel and Gaza, and Iran's warnings to the U.S., adds uncertainty to financial markets.
