On November 5, the United States will not only choose its future president, but the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will also be at stake, which will affect the power of the new occupant in the White House, whether it be the Democrat Kamala Harris or the Republican Donald Trump.
In the 2022 midterm elections, the Democrats lost control of the House but maintained the Senate. According to Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Institute for Public Affairs, having their party control Congress is key to turning their ideas into real policies.
Currently, the country is polarized, and voting is no longer as open as it used to be. Although the Democrats are leading in voter intention, the margin over the Republicans is minimal, according to the average polls from FiveThirtyEight.
The Democrats also lead in mobilization and fundraising, reflecting greater financial support for their campaigns. However, recent polls suggest a possible color change in both chambers, with the House returning to Democratic hands and the Senate going to the Republicans.
Regarding the elections in the House of Representatives, the Democrats need to gain four more seats to take control. California, Arizona, Iowa, New York, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania are in the spotlight due to uncertainty in some seats.
In the Senate, the Republicans have a simpler task, given that the vice presidency holds the tie-breaking vote. The Republican party could achieve control with just one additional seat, depending on who the future vice president is.
The next congressional elections will take place in November 2026, where all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will again be at stake. In the current Congress, the division has led to a constant deadlock in approving measures.
In summary, the outcome of the November elections will determine the balance of power in Congress and will have a significant impact on the president's ability to carry out his political agenda.
