Unfortunately, in both Kamala's and Trump's cases, there will be a hardening, and Mexico finds itself in a complicated position due to the approval of the Judicial Reform and the possible disappearance of autonomous regulatory bodies in the areas of competition, energy, telecommunications, or transparency.
With Harris as president, severe restrictions on Chinese exports of semiconductors, which are crucial for the global supply chain, would be expected. Regarding U.S. relations with Europe and NATO, Kamala is expected to maintain support for the planet's most important military organization and other international alliances.
What can we expect for Mexico with Harris as president? Undoubtedly, less extremist policies compared to what would occur if Trump won the contest. Hence, the importance of these elections, as their global implications are absolute. With two ongoing wars: Ukraine and the Middle East, a world recovering from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant social polarization, and in an era of global mult crises, the big question is: who would be better for the world, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?
The foreign policy of the United States during Trump's presidency was marked by its unpredictability and by failing to meet previous international commitments, disrupting diplomatic conventions, and adopting risky policies with the majority of adversaries. On this occasion, Lichtman states, according to his model, that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.
The United States, the world’s largest economy, with an estimated GDP of 22.6 trillion dollars (a quarter of the global nominal GDP), a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, with two-fifths of the world's military spending, makes it the world’s geopolitical leader. We are days away from the most important election on the planet: the presidency of the United States.
Two issues are of utmost importance on the bilateral agenda: migration and the economic future with the review of the USMCA. With Kamala, continuity in the immigration policy of President Biden is expected, with a tightening of border control policies, but with humanitarian treatment, unlike what would occur if Trump were president, as well as the possibility of continuing to issue executive orders for regularization, especially for specific groups of the migrant community, like dreamers, which would be unthinkable with Trump.
The review of the USMCA is to take place in 2026, but consultations will begin next year. With his "method of the 13 keys", based on geophysical terms, he has successfully predicted who will be the president of the world's most powerful nation since 1984, which has made him one of the leading analysts. With Trump, one might even consider a U.S. exit from the USMCA, which would be catastrophic in terms of economic impact for Mexico, as 80 percent of our exports go to the United States and nearly 50 percent of imports and foreign direct investment come from our northern neighbor.
After this analysis, we can conclude that while the global outlook is complicated, there are greater hopes with Kamala, with less radical stances and openness to possible negotiations and alliances, so the best outcome for the future of the world would be for a woman to lead the U.S. government for the first time in history. Trump's "America First" policy pursued nationalist foreign policy goals and prioritized bilateral relations over multilateral agreements.
Considering a victory for Kamala Harris, we could predict a scenario where U.S. foreign policy would be more active. In this sense, we must ask ourselves: what geopolitical alliances can we expect? Regarding the war in the Middle East, Kamala would continue to negotiate a ceasefire but would not stop sending millions in weapons to Israel.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are basically tied. He was one of the few who predicted Trump’s surprising victory in 2016. For Ukraine, military aid would be maintained to strengthen the country’s negotiating position if Moscow agrees to hold real peace talks; thus, Harris has met with President Zelensky six times. Another critical issue in the decision-making of the next person in the White House is the relationship with China.
Kamala would have to make compromises, trying to reconcile the demands of the unions in her country and the relationship with Mexico. She only failed once, in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore. With only a week remaining, a winner cannot be predicted as the polls could not be closer. According to FiveThirtyEight, as of October 25, both candidates would receive 48 percent of the votes.
However, because the United States uses an Electoral College system to define its president, the so-called "swing states": Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina could end up defining the head of state on November 5, with the Hispanic community being more than relevant. Historian Allan Lichtman has become the leading guru of U.S. presidential elections. The existing world order emerged from the end of World War II, with the United States as the great savior, able to dictate the rules of the global game.
