According to the most recent data, Kamala Harris holds a slight national lead over Trump, with a difference of only 1.7 points, although this gap was wider a few weeks ago when it reached three points. Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race has benefited Harris, but Trump has significantly narrowed the gap.
Trump has consolidated his lead in Arizona and Georgia and leads by a narrow margin in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. With only two weeks until the elections on November 5, the race is closer than ever. There is a possibility that history repeats itself where Harris wins the popular vote but loses the presidency if Trump secures the necessary states to gain a majority in the Electoral College.
Trump has taken the lead in key states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. In Arizona, he has turned around the polls, a state that was won by Joe Biden in 2020 by a very narrow margin. The polls reflect an uncertain landscape in five of the seven key states, while in two of them, Trump has a slight advantage.
On the other hand, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, decisive states in the "Rust Belt" industrial region, which were crucial in Trump’s victory in 2016. Although Trump remains ahead in North Carolina, there are possibilities that the state could change color in this election, as he won it by a very narrow margin in 2020.
With the elections so close, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will be crucial. Although Harris could win without needing these states, it would be a complicated scenario. The latest polls show Trump leading in three of the seven key states that will determine the outcome of the elections.
The Electoral College consists of 538 votes, and to win, one of the candidates must reach at least 270. While Kamala Harris leads the national vote intentions, the electoral system in the United States prioritizes winning key states. For Trump, securing Georgia and North Carolina is crucial, while Pennsylvania appears to be decisive, as Trump has placed himself ahead in the polls, though by a very narrow margin.
