A breath of hope for democracy has arrived in these dire times: the defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, if indeed he served as a model for the autocratic and corrupt system that Andrés Manuel López Obrador imposed in Mexico. The one who promised to 'liberate' the Strait of Hormuz now seeks to block it, with all that implies for the world. The European Union's dependence on oil and gas from the Middle East and Russia, and the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, is now further complicated by the prospect of turning back to Russia at a time when they have remained firm in sanctions against Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. However, with his war against Iran, Trump has lifted sanctions to 'alleviate' the global oil price crisis, putting the EU in a predicament. Now, with the failure of negotiations in Pakistan, Trump says he will block the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, voices from the Democratic opposition, former MAGA allies, and American analysts are beginning to mention the possibility of applying the 25th Amendment, a mechanism in the U.S. Constitution for removing a president due to an inability to perform their duties. It is difficult to predict what may happen in the world at this moment. We are witnessing a true earthquake of events and decisions, and trying to analyze them with logic or precedents from other historical periods is no longer valid, due to the great speed at which information is transmitted by media and, of course, social networks. The propaganda war sharpens the issue through these platforms, keeping us in a state of permanent tension. We have a responsibility to take verified information to form an opinion. The failure of the Trump administration's negotiations in Pakistan to stop the war against Iran began from the start, as Israel never stopped its bombing of Lebanon and was not present at the talks. It was understood that Israel would subordinate itself to agreements made by the United States, but this was never made explicit, nor was it clear that the issue of Lebanon would be on the negotiation agenda. From an illegal war with no respect for international law, whose initial narrative by Trump was to overthrow the religious-political regime of the ayatollahs in Iran, the focus shifted after intense U.S. and Israeli bombings to controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This immediately cast doubt on the economic growth expectations that financial institutions had for early 2026 and led to a rise in fuel prices, fueling global inflation. The increase in fertilizer prices has also caused agricultural product prices to soar. Moreover, with Iran closing the strait and the conflict extending throughout the Middle East, economic expectations have become pessimistic, causing even historical military alliances like NATO with the United States to waver, and many countries, already bruised by Trump's tariff policy last year, to seek closer ties with China. Meanwhile, we remain in grave danger, darkness, and uncertainty, all maintained by one man—the most powerful in the world. The question is, how long can Europe and China last without an oil supply, and what would be the economic consequences for the world? For Mexico, this of course has repercussions. Gasoline and fertilizer prices have already risen, impacting inflation. Mexico's central bank, whose main function is to control inflation, has lowered interest rates, contrary to what other central banks are doing, which is also causing a capital flight. In a context where we recall that in the 7 years of López Obrador's term, the economy has not grown, we are now closer to having a stagnant economy with inflation. We must not forget that negotiations for the ratification of a trade agreement are also underway against the clock. After the situation in Iran and its failure to date by Trump, it has not only fractured his MAGA movement, as he promised the U.S. would not get involved in wars and has not only done so but hasn't won and doesn't know how to get out of it, but with the November elections and an economy under pressure directly affecting the wallets of American voters, his narrative would likely only allow him to start shouting again about migrants, border security, the fight against drug cartels, and bringing investments back to the United States. In other words, returning to his attacks on Mexico, and that is where the danger for our country lies. In this 'chaos' strategy that Trump maintains, it is very difficult to predict what could happen if he has already reached an unimaginable and unspoken limit of saying he would 'end a whole civilization in one night' referring to Iran. Then anything can be expected, but also in the ego of the same person, he can do anything, which leads to the question: where can a person with such reasoning be expected to negotiate?
