The United States Congress raised concerns about the alliance between Donald Trump and Javier Milei, pointing to the $20 billion swap, while warning that the Argentine government cannot yet guarantee the sustainability of its reforms, on-time debt payments, or relevance as a trading partner. The U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) prepared a report, obtained by the Argentine News Agency, focusing on the financial assistance from the Trump administration to Argentina. It states that the main obstacle to Argentina's economic policy is the limited availability of foreign currency. In this context, it emphasizes that the swap was implemented under pressure on the peso's value and growing opposition in the Argentine parliament. Along these lines, it highlights the argument that a 'strong and stable' Argentina serves the strategic interest of the U.S. to counter China's influence. However, the analysis also shows criticism from some U.S. congressmen regarding the swap, who point out:
IP It disadvantages U.S. exporters competing with Argentina. It uses taxpayer money to finance a country with a history of default. It could exert improper influence on foreign democratic elections or benefit private investors.
The CRS concludes that the future of Argentina's economic stability and debt repayment remains shrouded in 'doubt,' and it remains to be seen to what extent the U.S. Congress will support the Trump administration's economic assistance measures. The document also analyzes the Milei administration's performance so far, noting implemented reforms but pointing to mixed results. It also emphasizes the 'good personal and ideological chemistry' between Trump and Milei, mentioning the public support from U.S. officials for the reforms. Furthermore, it warns that this financial instrument is Argentina's primary source of foreign currency, as the country 'does not have a solid trade surplus.' In this sense, the analysis warns that 'with the peso near the top of its band and increasing debt payments for the next three years, the government could face new obstacles to deepening the reforms.' It also projects that 'if the Government runs out of funds for debt payments and to sustain its exchange rate policy, it could face difficult decisions, such as a tenth default or allowing greater flexibility in the peso's value.' In that scenario, it notes that 'the government could seek additional support from the U.S., the IMF (International Monetary Fund), or other organizations,' stressing that 'the prospects for obtaining that support are unclear, given doubts about the IMF's willingness to extend assistance, considering its high exposure to Argentina compared to other member countries.' At the same time, the document states that 'there are also doubts about Argentina's importance as a trading partner for the U.S., as its previous crises have not had significant contagion effects on the U.S. or global economy.' The CRS reviewed Argentina's 'long history of economic turbulence' and described it as a country with a high dependence on the IMF and a history of defaults.
