Experts from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their annual winter outlook. This year, they anticipate that with La Niña as the dominant weather pattern, warm and dry conditions are expected in the eastern and southern United States. On the other hand, the northwest is forecasted to experience cooler temperatures and more precipitation, as well as possible above-average rainfall in the Great Lakes.
According to Jon Gottschalck, head of the operational forecasting section of the Climate Prediction Center, winter predictions have become more challenging this year due to the anticipated formation of a weak version of La Niña. Based on years with historical similarities, forecasting models, and the current state of weather patterns, projections indicate that regions such as the southern Great Plains and the Central High Plains may have less snow than usual.
The anticipated arrival of winter is becoming evident in some areas of the U.S., especially in the northwest, where a Pacific storm is expected to bring intense cold and snowfall in the mountains in the coming days. This situation has led NOAA to issue its winter forecast, emphasizing the likelihood of snow in the northeast and New England, while less snow than normal is expected in the mid-Atlantic and lower parts of the northeast.
Gottschalck's expertise is challenged in forecasting the amount of snow that will fall in different regions this winter. Predictions indicate that certain areas, such as parts of the Rockies and some sectors of the Great Lakes, have higher probabilities of receiving above-average snowfall.
Despite the influence of La Niña on the formation of winter storms with wetter and colder patterns, this winter is surrounded by uncertainty due to potential weekly changes throughout the season. These variables limit meteorologists' confidence in their seasonal forecasts, as conditions can fluctuate, affecting the expected amount of snow in various areas. Nevertheless, it is urged that winter preparation should not be postponed, keeping coats and snow removal equipment handy.
