According to Puente, a slowdown in global growth is expected this year, around +3.1% compared to +3.3% last year. This scenario reflects a resistance in the demand for raw materials and a relative stability in the medium term, with no significant changes in other factors. Additionally, it is projected that supply will be influenced by climatic conditions and geopolitical events, affecting prices.
Regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed), it is expected to continue its cycle of rate cuts, which could reduce upward pressure on the dollar and benefit commodity prices. In the energy sector, oil prices have shown a downward trend over the last month, despite geopolitical risks and uncertainty regarding global growth.
The increasing tensions between Iran and Israel and the reduction of supply by OPEC+ present threats to energy supply. Currently, Brent price stands at USD 72.4 per barrel and WTI at USD 68.8 per barrel after declines of -8.4% and -9% respectively in the last month. Some OPEC+ members have decided to extend voluntary cuts until the end of December.
In the metals sector, gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs, while industrial metals have mostly seen declines. According to Puente's analysis, the general commodity index fell -3.7% in October, with mixed performances among sectors.
Demand resistance for commodities is anticipated to increase due to the global economic slowdown. Prices for major crops displayed variations, with increases in corn and soybeans, and a decrease in wheat in October. Climatic conditions and other external factors have impacted the prospects for these crops, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture maintained its agricultural projections for the next campaign.
Nicolás Max, director of Asset Management at Criteria, highlights that commodities present a complicated scenario, especially with reduced purchases from China. He also analyzed oil prospects with Trump in power, indicating that the United States will remain a leader in oil production.
Overall, concerns regarding the global trade cycle are expected to affect regions like Europe, which could lead to a weaker Euro against the U.S. dollar. The same would apply to countries like China and the Yuan, according to a report by Criteria on the markets under the Trump administration.
