In the coming days, presidential elections will be held in the United States, with a contest expected to be very close, possibly decided by a single key state: Pennsylvania. The economic proposals of the candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, will mark different paths for the economy not only of the United States but also for nations like Mexico and the rest of the world.
For Trump, if re-elected, a continuation of policies leading to sustained growth is expected, although with an increase in the budget deficit that could reach 8 percent, due to the extension of corporate tax cuts and tax benefits for companies that maintain their operations in U.S. territory. On the other hand, Harris, following Biden's lines, would focus on maintaining most of the ongoing public policies.
The current uncertainty regarding electoral results has generated instability in financial markets, with rates at high levels and a possible trend towards the appreciation of the dollar, as well as the depreciation of currencies around the world. National and international challenges, such as migration and relations with China, will shape the political agenda of the United States, regardless of who emerges victorious in the elections.
Trump's proposals on imposing universal tariffs on manufactured products from abroad could directly impact final consumers, generating a price increase that would affect the inflation rate in the United States. A scenario of volatility in asset prices is anticipated in the event of a victory for either candidate, with potential effects on the Mexican economy and the renegotiation of the USMCA.
