According to Joaquín Barrera, Director of Fixed Income and Investments at Sura Investments, the trade policy of the United States will continue to be protectionist, regardless of who wins the presidential elections in November, whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Barrera noted that while Trump has a more aggressive stance in trade terms, even under a possible Harris presidency, some protectionist trend would remain.
At the forum "Meet Point Virtual: Government Change: What Do Markets Expect?" organized by El Financiero, Barrera explained that the issue goes beyond political affiliation, as after Harris's nomination, polls indicate an increasingly tight race, with Trump gaining ground in recent dates. During Trump's first administration, although protectionist measures were implemented, not all could be realized due to existing treaties and policies.
If Kamala Harris were elected, Barrera warned that her government would also maintain some protectionist orientation, following the precedent of the Biden administration, which kept some of Trump's trade measures. On the other hand, a Trump victory would mean a more protectionist and less global vision, which could impact not only Mexico but also other emerging markets and the global market in general.
Valentín Martínez Rico, Vice President of Value Offering at Sura Investments, mentioned that uncertainty about the election results and their trade implications is already generating volatility in the financial markets. An example of this is the recent strengthening of the dollar amid the possibility of a Trump victory, who has expressed his intention to impose tariffs to protect U.S. industries and limit the entry of Chinese products to the market.
