Traders moved hundreds of millions of dollars in oil contracts just minutes before the U.S. President, Donald Trump, announced on Monday that his country would postpone attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, which he himself had threatened over the weekend. Market data reviewed by the BBC shows a sharp spike in trading volume about 15 minutes before Trump shared his announcement on social media. The price of oil plummeted after the news, falling by 14% in a matter of minutes. Those who bet on such an unexpected turn could have made substantial profits. Several market analysts believe this unusual activity opens the door to the possibility that some of those bets were made with prior knowledge of Trump's decision. The BBC has contacted the White House for comment. A spokesperson told The Financial Times that the government does not 'tolerate any official illegally benefiting from insider information'. Global financial markets have suffered strong turbulence due to the conflict in the Middle East: stock prices have fallen while the price of oil and gas has surged. However, on several occasions, the hope for a possible end to the war has caused very volatile movements, with sharp drops in oil and rises in the stock market. On Saturday, Trump threatened to 'annihilate' Iran's power plants if the country did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas passes, within a 48-hour period. Markets were closed that day, but those in Asia saw sharp declines when they reopened on Monday morning, while the price of oil began to rise. However, on Monday at 7:04 a.m. (Eastern Time), before the opening of U.S. markets, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington had held 'VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS' with Tehran for a 'COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION (sic)' of the hostilities. Immediately, stock markets rebounded and oil fell to $84 per barrel, according to the U.S. benchmark price. Since then, several observers have been analyzing in detail what happened in the financial markets in the minutes leading up to the president's message. At 6:49 a.m., traders placed 734 bets on WTI crude contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). A minute later, that number had skyrocketed to 2,168, equivalent to about $170 million. A similar pattern appeared in the purchase of Brent contracts, the other major oil benchmark. Between 6:48 a.m. and 6:50 a.m., the trading volume jumped from 20 to over 1,650: about $150 million in contracts. Data from other Mondays shows that at that hour, significantly fewer trades are usually made. Similar movements were recorded on Monday in S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and other futures markets. This means that traders bet on an increase in the value of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. and Europe just minutes before Trump's announcement. 'This seems abnormal, without a doubt,' states Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at XAnalysts. 'At that moment, there was no indication that serious talks were taking place between the United States and Iran, so betting so much money on an oil price drop raises many questions'. Suspicion of insider trading. The timing of the trades has raised doubts about possible prior knowledge of the president's announcement. 'Right before he posted on social media, many people entered deals that would allow them to benefit from a drop in the price of oil,' noted Rachel Winter, a partner at the wealth management firm Killik & Co. 'That's why speculation has arisen about a possible use of insider information'.
