Experts believe that North America needs guaranteed supply chains and for the entire trade bloc to function smoothly. In this context, it seems more complicated that Trump would want to withdraw the United States from the agreement. Business leaders are calling for the elimination of uncertainty and tariffs ahead of the USMCA review. A few days ago, Mexico's Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez Romano, stated that strengthening supply chains will be a fundamental topic for discussion in the upcoming bilateral dialogues. As the USMCA negotiation rounds begin next week, the Mexican business community is acting cautiously. The United States is reportedly pressuring Mexico to sign a fossil energy plan. If the conflict translates into inflation in the US due to crude oil prices, it could lead to a successful discussion on trade, as it complicates President Trump's ability to impose tariffs or restrictive trade measures that would further increase prices and reduce his political space. In our opinion, the probability of Trump withdrawing from, radically modifying, or making the USMCA bilateral has been reduced to 5% or less. Other scenarios include impacts on US public finances, which would give Trump less room to promote a successful economy. Similarly, exceptions for Mexico and Canada in tariff section 122 are possible. For instance, it is noted that Mexico's position has improved in recent weeks. 'This could reduce political capital to spend on Mexico and Canada,' an expert considered. Regardless of these indirect impacts, economists see other significant positive signals. Another factor is a political blow that could affect the Republican party in Congress. 'It may seem abstract, but when we talk about the drama of the war at this moment, that is precisely what we are talking about—when the Strait of Hormuz, which today poses a risk to global logistics, we can have resilience and economic security in our region,' stated during the presentation of the results of a business consultation on the USMCA. The industrial sector not only sees a positive impact for the USMCA but also a boost for nearshoring. It also takes into account the results of consultations with 1,500 testimonies, 95% of which are favorable to the trade agreement. De la Calle mentions the fact that the US Supreme Court overturned tariffs protected under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), as 'it underscores that the Executive cannot make decisions on the treaty without going through Congress.' 'We already have a precedent with the critical minerals plan,' he said in a conversation with this publication. According to Ignacio Martínez, an academic at UNAM, the conflict in Iran is a great opportunity for the United States to expand its energy security in the American continent. According to sources at the Business Coordinating Council (CCE), on one hand, they are concerned by Trump's latest references to the agreement, but on the other hand, the calculation that the war in the Middle East plays in their favor is gaining ground. Cited in local media, the director of 360 Industrial Park, Manuel González Lomelí, considered that given China's stance in the military conflict, investment projects could be relocated to the region. For Dr. Luis de la Calle, a former official and participant in the design and implementation of NAFTA, the conflict in Iran may have an indirect relationship, which will depend on the duration of the war and the type of impact. 'These signals imply an improvement in the possibilities of us getting a tariff preference and reduce the probability of Trump withdrawing from or radically modifying the USMCA or making it bilateral. That probability has been reduced, in our view, to 5% or less.' Barclays sees a favorable scenario for the USMCA and contained clashes from the Middle East, although there is also tension over the demands Trump is expected to make, for example, on regional content or energy.
