The Swiss entity UBS believes that trade tensions with the United States will not end this year, as it expects the USMCA review to be extended until 2027, although it acknowledges that Mexico will be in a stronger negotiating position. This is one of the most pessimistic market opinions on the USMCA review, while the consensus points to an economic recovery linked to less uncertainty in the second half of the year. In its base scenario, UBS Securities LLC of UBS Global Research envisions that the agreement's renegotiation will occur until 2027 'and possibly beyond'. The U.S. government will pursue two main goals: reindustrializing the country and reducing its external deficits, and reducing its commercial dependence on China. They also see a possibility that the U.S. may pursue non-commercial objectives during USMCA negotiations, linking progress on migration, drugs, security, and defense to the renegotiation. For Mexico, the analysts highlight advantages such as the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs and the capture of 'El Mencho'.
