This year, Black Friday in the United States is taking place amidst economic uncertainty, making consumers more cautious. According to estimates, they will spend 4% less than in 2024. Despite this, 82% of U.S. consumers plan to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the National Retail Federation estimates that 187 million people will make purchases this weekend, counting from yesterday (Thanksgiving Day) through Cyber Monday. However, the current economic context, marked by tariffs and persistent inflation, is concerning consumers, with 57% of those surveyed by Deloitte expecting the economy to weaken in the next six months. This fear is reflected in shoppers' plans: on average, they intend to spend $622 between November 27 and December 1, a 4% decrease from the same period last year. On the corporate side, retailers have been particularly affected by the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on China, many of which remain in force, although some have been temporarily suspended or have exceptions by product type. Many small businesses turn to Chinese manufacturers due to their profitability and large-scale production capacity. This is the case for Loftie, a brand that manufactures smart alarm clocks and lamps in China. The company's CEO told EFE that he was forced to halt production early in the year «because it didn't make sense to move inventory when tariffs were as high as 180%». «We have focused on diverting our sales out of the United States,» he points out. According to DCL Logistics, the products most harmed by the China tariffs include electronics, clothing and footwear, and home goods. Facing this economic climate, most companies are resorting to «shrinkflation», which involves reducing the size or quantity of a product without changing the consumer's price. Meanwhile, Black Friday has lost its original meaning over the years. In the late 80s, merchants began using this term to refer to a positive boost in retail sales after operating at a loss all year. However, for many companies today, this day «has lost importance due to the pressure of Cyber Monday,» as sales «last longer, up to a week or even more in some cases,» Punit notes. The importance of Black Friday also varies by company: for some, it represents a significant portion of their annual sales, while others depend less on these periods, the professor adds. The internet has also transformed Black Friday. While long queues of people waiting to get into crowded stores were once common, shopping is now mostly done online. This trend was reflected this year during Thanksgiving Day, when U.S. consumers spent $6.4 billion online, a 5.3% year-over-year increase, according to preliminary data from Adobe Analytics. Young people are more likely to turn to «influencers» (74%) and AI (43%) to get inspired and discover products during this time. According to the consultancy, 33% of all consumers plan to use generative AI this holiday season, more than double the number in 2024. Some companies are seizing this opportunity: starting this week, OpenAI's ChatGPT can generate personalized shopping guides based on user preferences and information from sellers' websites.
