U.S. exports are expected to reach $170.5 billion, a decrease of 2.2 percent compared to the previous year. The USDA has indicated that avocado imports from Mexico, which is the main product in terms of import volume, will increase due to strong demand and better growing conditions. Additionally, cocoa and sugar, which have high prices, will also contribute to the increase in imports. This could result in rising food import costs if retaliatory actions are taken by other countries and agricultural products are affected.
In terms of imports, the U.S. is expected to increase agricultural product imports by 6.5 percent this year, reaching $219.5 billion. Shipments of avocados, orange juice, and coffee are projected to represent a significant portion of this increase, according to the USDA. Despite threats of tariffs by President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the United States, a global agricultural powerhouse, is importing more food than ever before.
This increase in imports could lead to a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the country this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's trade outlook report. Traditional American crops have been losing market share internationally, with Russia surpassing the U.S. as the top wheat exporter and Brazil overtaking the U.S. as the largest exporter of corn, cotton, and soybeans. It's a drastic change for a nation that once used its abundant food supplies as a tool of governance and now faces persistent agricultural trade deficits.
On the other hand, the United States has imported more food than it exported every year since 2023. Although some grain exports are expected to increase, traditional U.S. crops have lost appeal abroad. The USDA report does not include the 70 to 100 million eggs the country plans to import to address high prices and the most severe avian influenza outbreak in history. Trump has threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on products from Mexico and Canada starting in March, along with an additional 10 percent tax on Chinese products.
