The global financial landscape is at a critical moment marked by persistent inflation in the United States, international trade tensions, and growing geopolitical uncertainty. Felipe Mendoza, financial markets analyst at ATFX LATAM, explained that markets have reacted with volatility to relevant economic data, especially to inflation figures in the U.S., which exceeded expectations in January, reaching an annual rate of 2.9%.
The persistence of inflation has led traders to adjust their projections regarding the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed), postponing the expectation of a rate cut in the United States until late 2025. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, reiterated his commitment to maintaining a restrictive policy until inflation solidly converges toward the 2% target, far from the current reality where the price index hovers around 3%.
Regarding the labor situation in the U.S., Felipe Mendoza pointed out that it remains solid with an unemployment rate close to 4%. The interaction of inflation, interest rates, geopolitics, and fiscal policies will determine the course of the global economy in the coming months. "Investors and policymakers must closely follow these events to anticipate the risks and opportunities that may arise," emphasized Mendoza.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions such as the negotiations between the United States and Russia over Ukraine could have a significant impact on energy stability and investor confidence in Europe. U.S. fiscal policy, with proposals for tax cuts and a protectionist approach to trade, could also generate additional distortions in the global economy.
In summary, the global financial scenario is at a turning point.
