Domestic demand in the United States continues to expand, with consumers seeking cheaper products, many of which come from Mexico thanks to the elimination of tariffs under the USMCA. While this benefits the purchasing power of Americans, it also increases the trade deficit. If authorities in the United States were to conduct an impartial analysis, they would conclude that the growth in consumption in their country is largely due to the economic integration of North America.
However, Trump's vision, clinging to the idea that the success of American manufacturing is the success of the country, overlooks the consumer and underestimates the growing weight of the technology industry as an indicator of economic success. The most recent data on the record trade deficit will fuel pressure to impose tariffs, which could negatively affect Mexico.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the trade deficit with Mexico amounted to $171.809 billion in 2024, the second highest after China. This upward trend has persisted over the years. On the other hand, the deficit with Canada has also grown, but remains significantly lower than that of Mexico.
Trump's imposition of tariffs, both for security issues and due to trade imbalances, has some consensus within his team. They are considered an effective tool to promote manufacturing and agriculture in the United States. However, specialized economists disagree and argue that the growth of the trade deficit is not due to a structural disadvantage with the United States nor will it be corrected with tariffs.
Among the reasons behind the growth of the trade deficit are productive integration, as many American companies rely on components manufactured in Mexico to assemble final products, thus generating a constant flow of imports. Lower labor costs in Mexico also play a role, leading many companies to move their operations to the country, reducing costs but also displacing jobs south of the border.
