The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that he will impose a 25 percent tariff on products from Mexico and Canada starting February 1, thus fulfilling one of his most controversial campaign promises. During a session in the Oval Office, Trump confirmed his intentions, arguing that both countries allow large numbers of people and fentanyl to enter the United States.
Francisco J. Peña-Valdés, Secretary General of the Association of Mexican Entrepreneurs, pointed out that the period until February 1 will be a test for Mexico and Canada to demonstrate their commitment to U.S. concerns regarding immigration and control of Chinese products.
Trump's strategy appears to follow the same line as in 2019, focusing on evaluating trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico. This generated a volatile day for the Mexican peso, which maintained its value at the end of the speech but later depreciated by 1.07 percent.
Experts such as Carlos Véjar from White & Case Mexico and Gabriela Siller from Banco Base expressed their concerns about the tariffs, noting that they would have an immediate negative impact on both countries and on U.S. supply chains. Additionally, they indicated that they would create inflationary pressures and significant logistical problems.
Rodolfo García-Sosa from Galilei Consulting stated that the implementation of the tariffs will take a few more days due to administrative procedures. Ildefonso Guajardo, former Secretary of Economy, highlighted that the announcement seems to be more of a negotiation strategy related to immigration issues.
Kenneth Smith, former chief technical negotiator of the USMCA, warned that the imposition of a 25 percent tariff could put Mexico and Canada in a complex situation and would be equivalent to temporarily suspending the USMCA, which would have inflationary effects and increase the costs of essential inputs for U.S. manufacturing. Smith urged not to concede, indicating that the risk remains present.
