The uncertainty in the political arena worldwide is high due to the elections taking place in many countries, with the possibility of introducing significant changes in trade and fiscal policy. As a result, idiosyncratic issues have been put on hold, and it is expected that they will be revisited once the elections in the United States conclude.
According to experts, despite global monetary adjustments and inflation caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the world economy has managed to remain stable and avoid a recession. Labor markets, immigration, and monetary policies have been key in countering inflationary effects and preventing larger-scale economic problems.
In this context, the possibility of a situation similar to the election between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000 is raised, with an outcome that may take time to define, generating uncertainty in financial markets. Disruptions in supply chains and the stability of labor markets have contributed to a reduction in inflation without severe repercussions on economic activity.
The IMF warns of a world marked by disruptions in supply chains due to climate change, health, and geopolitics, which increases the risk of conflicts and tensions in various areas. Moreover, the possibility that former president Trump may not recognize the election results in the event of a tight victory also raises concerns among investors.
During the annual fall meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington DC, current economic challenges were discussed, highlighting persistent inflation in some sectors and the risks of political crises in different countries. The presence of influential political and economic figures at the event reflects the importance of these issues at a global level.
In conclusion, despite the economic stability achieved so far, there are uncertainties and latent risks that could trigger crises in various aspects internationally, from geopolitical to economic, keeping financial markets and experts in the field on alert.