The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that rising geopolitical tensions worldwide will have a direct impact on global production, which will decrease by half a percentage point during the year 2026 due to tariff increases between blocs and uncertainty regarding future trade policy. According to the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, trade disputes between countries, and actions that disrupt trade and investment will reduce investment, economic activity, and consumption.
In the context of the presentation of the latest economic outlook from the IMF, it was highlighted that global economic growth forecasts remain at 3.2% for the current year but are lowered by a tenth for the year 2025, also to 3.2%. Current risks may negatively influence these projections. One of the identified risk factors is linked to geopolitical tensions arising from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as trade disputes between blocs.
Gourinchas warned that rising tariffs between blocs will disrupt trade, cause misallocation of resources, and affect global economic activity. According to the economist, the combination of these factors could lead to a 0.5% decrease in global production levels for the year 2026, representing a significant impact from both rising tariffs between countries and uncertainty regarding trade policy.
The IMF's WEO report was presented in the context of the annual meetings that the IMF and World Bank are holding this week. Projections indicate that advanced economies will grow only 1.8% this year, compared to previous estimates. As for emerging and developing markets, a growth of 4.2% is expected for both this year and the next, with minimal adjustments to previously forecasted figures.
