Large companies in the United States are taking a cautious stance ahead of a closely contested election. According to analysts, both the sectors of big banking and defense, as well as the technology and oil industries, have much to gain or lose depending on the election outcome.
Some business leaders like Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Bill Gates are keeping a low profile. Dimon could become a potential member of the Government if Kamala Harris wins, while Bill Gates has made a significant donation.
Expert analysis highlights that the candidates' diametrically opposed fiscal plans will be key. Harris proposes raising the corporate tax from 21% to 28%, while Trump promises to reduce it to 15%. Additionally, Trump advocates for tariffs on imports and Chinese products.
A victory for Harris would favor large-cap and cyclical companies, while a Trump victory would benefit domestic stocks and companies exposed to discretionary spending.
The financial sector is particularly concerned about potential changes in taxes and regulations. Regulatory measures could affect financial services and the solvency of entities in the event of a financial crisis.
Regardless of the electoral outcome, sectors such as infrastructure and technology are expected to come out ahead. In the case of technology, a Republican victory could be more beneficial, especially following Elon Musk's support for Trump.
In defense, a potential second term for Trump would imply a significant budget in this sector, although a reduction in funding for conflicts such as the one in Ukraine with Russia is anticipated.
Regarding the healthcare and energy systems, Harris's and Trump's proposals differ significantly. Harris intends to tighten private insurers' access to the Medicare Advantage plan while Republicans continue to favor fossil fuels over renewable energies.
Regardless of the results, the uncertainty generated by the elections has produced volatility in the markets. Some analysts anticipate rises in the stock market and in debt yields in the days following the elections, highlighting the importance of being prepared for any scenario.
